Assessing the Romney Win

As everyone expected, former MA Governor Mitt Romney achieved a run away win in Saturday's Ames Straw Poll in Iowa. I congratulate Mr Romney and applaud his organizational skills and clearly disciplined campaign team.

But why are some tossing such derogatory terms as "hollow" and "meaningless" around square in the direction of the Romney camp?

While it is true that in 1999 over 23,000 voters turned out compared to only 14,000 this year, clearly, the circumstances are not the same. In these polls, candidates load up their supporters and bring them in to show their support. So while only roughly 14,000 turned out for this year's straw poll, I think any clear thinking person needs to attribute it not to a lack of support for Mr Romney, but for a lack of enthusiasm on the part of the other so called candidates and their "supporters." Dare I say the others were plain afraid? I think I will.

The main point of polls such as the Ames is to continue fundraising momentum into the later season and to build or build upon your buzz. This election is so unique in so many ways but the variable of the utmost importance is the front loading of the primaries which will require candidates on both sides to compete in several states simultaneously. The amount of money this is going to cost is going to dwarf previous presidential elections when all is said and done. The 2004 presidential election approached a final figure of close to one billion dollars. Think about that.

As such, anyone who thought they had a chance in Hell of doing well (top three) in the Iowa straw poll would have been present and accounted for with their supporters in tow. This accounts for the low turnout. The other alleged front runners weren't there so their supporters weren't there, hence, 14k as opposed to potentially over 20k.

The bottom line here is Iowa is a pulse of middle America and as anyone who has so much as perused an electoral map lately could tell you, middle America wins elections. If you are going to ignore Iowa, you just slapped the voters of middle America in the face.

Do I understand why they did it?
Of course.
Neither Giuliani or McCain could have shown well in an Iowa poll at this point.
However, Iowa is a place to show your guts even if the glory may be limited and at least one of these two men went on record saying he'd be there.

“Would I prefer that there wasn’t an Iowa straw poll? Probably, because then I could be doing other things,” McCain, a U.S. senator from Arizona, said. “But that’s what the party wants, and that’s what the party’s going to get.”

Last I heard, Hillary Clinton was "110% committed to participating in Iowa" and other potentially hostile states regardless of the outcome. Why? She is smart. Her team is smart. She knows it is better to be there taking the heat, as she has been doing in various angry atmospheres where she has been boo'd by the far left of her party, than it is to run and hide. If nothing else, an appearance in the face of opposition shows integrity.

Ask yourself this: What have we become when Hillary Clinton is showing more strength of character than two of the GOP's front runners?

Be afraid. Be very afraid.