Weblog Commenting and Trackback by HaloScan.com The Barnyard: Caucus Time: Updated

Thursday, January 03, 2008

Caucus Time: Updated

Well almost as of typing, a couple hours, and all the candidates that are playing in Iowa and their organizations are in full motion getting their delegates out to the caucus sites. I am not even going to pretend to know how caucusing works but it sounds like a wild night of politicking and cajoling especially on the Democrats side. According to various pundits on the ground if crowds are any indicator then Obama and Edwards have the largest and most boistrous followed by Huc and Hillary. Romney is concentrating on smaller more intimate gatherings and not dragging along celebrity props to boost crowds like Edwards, Obama and Huckabee have been. I like and appreciate that, relying on message and policy instead of gimmickry to communicate more directly with the people. Fred is his own celebrity and if he had started in the summer and ran like he meant it he would probably be the frontrunner but he didn't and now is fighting for third with McCain.
Here are my predictions based on my observations.
Romney's far superior organization will deliver him the caucus by about 5 over Huckabee with Fred pulling third 5 more back, pulling Huck down, John, Rudy and Dr. Paul fighting for fourth.
The Democrats are expecting about twice the turnout as the GOP in a very complicated caucus that can take hours of active participation, Obama and Edwards have the big energetic crowds. Obama will win here and probably New Hampshire but the primaries mean less at Convention time for the Democrats which have a huge number of establishment "super-delegates" compared to the GOP. Hillary is the establishment candidate and can sit on her laurels till Super Tuesday and Obama and Edwards are somewhat anti-establishment. The old bulls in the DNC know Hillary won't upset their apple-cart where Obama might with his reform talk. The caucus has less meaning for the DNC than ours does in the long run, they are still run by the party bosses and as is obvious we have anything but an establishment candidate and a possible brokered National Convention.
Update: I don't know if I have any readers in Iowa but if I do , feel free to chime in and update the rest of us. Townhall and NRO staff are there so you know where to go for updates, Cspan will cover the DNC and Cspan 2 will cover the GOP.
Update: Early reports have it for Huck and Obama, with Romney a strong second, Fred in third and Edwards and Hillary scrapping for a thin second and third.


Amy Proctor said...

Im hoping to see Romney win. I think I support him..I really want to support Huckabee but there've been too many turn offs with him that I think I have to stay with Romney.

Goat said...

Glad to see you. however tentively, stepping in to our camp Amy. Mitt is the all around candidate and Mike holds only sociall con creds with his foreign policy and economics weaknesses.

Gayle said...

I have decided to go with Fred, Goat, but I will vote for Romney without any problem if he should wind up being the nominee. Yes, I'll vote for any Republican who wins, but I will have a problem with Huckabee and probably develop a nervous tick or a drinking problem or something if it should be Ron Paul! Ugh!

Happy New Year!

Goat said...

Fred has become my second choice Gayle, despite my earlier opposition. When do you Texans vote? We are part of Super Tuesday. I believe if he had gotten in over the summer he would be the frontrunner now.