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Friday, January 04, 2008

Post Caucus

Huckabee's win was expected and predicted pretty accurately by the polls and some are saying this kills Romney because he had to win to get the slingshot bounce. That was true when Rudy had a huge national lead and Mitt was still in single digits but Rudy has come back to a tightly grouped bunch at the top with Mitt having a slim national lead in Rasmussen so Iowa meant less to him than it had early on. His organization actually exceeded its turnout goals but had underestimated total turnout which was higher than anyone expected.
Obama's win is big for the people he turned out, alot of younger voters that usually haven't come out to caucus. Laura Ingraham was at Obama's victory rally and reported that it was electric and intoxicating, I have been saying to watch this guy, he is great on the stump. This kills Hillary though as she was built on her inevitability as Madame Hillary the rightful heir to the Democrat ticket. Obama will get the huge boost out of Iowa that Mitt used to need to overtake Rudy in the national polls to overtake Hillary's huge lead nationally and will win in New Hampshire. He will pull alot of the independents from McCain in the Granite State helping Mitt.
I look for Hillary to unleash the attack dogs now that she has it all to lose and to crack up badly as she does, she has yet to get anything to stick to that teflon suit he wears. She won't be able to handle the pressure and will implode right before our eyes in a screaming rage.
Obama will be tougher to beat but it will be a battle of ideas and not a mudfest. Obama is a hard left activist, a gifted orator and genuinely nice guy. He can be beaten but it will take an entirely different style campaign to do it. I think the GOP better start wondering who can beat Barack Obama and stop worrying about Hillary so much.


Ron Simpson said...

I am looking forward to watching Hillary implode.
I think Mitt did very well. Not a win, but second is good. Iowa normally is used to weed out the losers, not pick winners. I wonder who will drop on the GOP side?

Goat said...

Good point about the caucus weeding out losers, Ron, Hunter is about the only one left that hasn't dropped out. The rest have support and or money.